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Reading / 2026-07/2026-07-09t161342-ai-2040-plan-a

AI 2040: Plan A

A policy scenario proposing that humanity delay superintelligence until 2040 through international agreements requiring full AI research transparency, coordinated multi-company scaling, and mutually assured compute destruction to avoid extinction or authoritarian power concentration.

Jul 09, 2026 · essay · Thomas Larsen, Romeo Dean, Brendan Halstead, Eli Lifland, Ryan Greenblatt, Daniel Kokotajlo, AI 2040

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Topics

  • ai-safety
  • ai-infrastructure
  • future-of-work
  • ai-agents
  • multimodal-ai

Cited by

  • AI agents

    Autonomous systems that plan, act, and verify across tool calls and multi-step workflows, with active debate over architecture choices, coordination costs, memory design, state management, and the governance infrastructure needed to make them reliable.

  • AI infrastructure

    The systems, abstractions, and operational layers that make AI models usable at scale, from compute and caching to routing, governance, agent hosting, and credential management.

  • AI safety

    AI safety spans containment of agentic systems, epistemic harms from sycophancy, skill atrophy from unreviewed code generation, and macro-level risks from rapid capability growth — each requiring different mitigations.

  • Future of work

    Automation and AI are reshaping who does what in organizations, but the harder problems are structural: how firms hire, onboard, retain tacit knowledge, and decide which human roles remain irreplaceable.

  • Multimodal AI

    AI systems that process and generate across multiple input or output modalities, including text, images, video, and audio, now powering everything from local desktop inference to autonomous video production pipelines.

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